An Agnostic Reality Check — How The World Really Works #booknotes
I have been digging for Vaclav Smil’s work, especially his papers related to energy, since last year. Bill Gates praised him highly and Vaclav Smil works are definitely important to look at.
Recently, he published two books. Numbers Don’t Lie: 71 Stories to Help Us Understand the Modern World in 2021 and How the World Really Works in 2022. As I am currently inclined to learn more on the bigger picture, I pick the latest one.
In one question, I would ask have we take a closer look on our current reality to prepare our future?
In the introduction, Vaclav Smil declares that his main area of interest throughout his life has been energy studies. In his word, a vast field that requires to combine an understanding of physics, chemistry, biology, geology, and engineering with an attention to history and to social, economic, and political factors. He also emphasizes that with this book, he strongly advocates for moving away from extreme views.
As I finished this book I truly feel that his matter-of-fact approach is important in these polarized days. I know I am biased on the importance of gas and nuclear in the short term, but I understand that we need a diversified energy sources to increase the options of human flourishment.
Let’s take a closer look on the book.
Understanding the basic: Energy and Food
I learned that energy is tricky. To answer what is energy, Vaclav Smil refers to one of the most insightful physicist Richard Feynman. Feynman stressed that “energy has a large number of different forms, and there is formula for each one. These are: gravitational energy, kinetic energy, heat energy, elastic energy, electrical energy, radiant energy, nuclear energy, mass energy.” Feynman conclude:
It is important to realize that in physics today, we have no knowledge of what energy is. We do not have a picture that energy comes in little blobs of a definite amount. It is not that way. However, there are formulas for calculating some numerical quantity, and when we add it all together it gives …— always the same number. It is an abstract thing in that it does not tell us the mechanism or the reasons for the various formulas.
Vaclav Smil wrote: Energy is among the most elusive and most misunderstood concepts, and a poor grasp of basic realities has led to many illusions and delusions.
We need to learn that energy is multifaceted abstract. Transition and substitution are not an easy task.
Replacing candles (the chemical energy of wac transformed into radiant energy) with electric lights powered by electricity generated by steam turbines (the chemical energy of fuels transformed first into heat and then into electric energy, whic is then transfromed into radiant energy) resultsed in many obvious benefits (a safery, brighter, cheaper, more reliable kind of energy). Replacing steam and diesel-powered railroad engines with electric drive has allowed less expensive, cleaner, and faster transportation. But many desirable substitutions remain more expensive, or possible but realistically unaffordable for some time to come, or impossible at required scales. No matter how loudly their promoters extol their virtues.
We need energy in our everyday life. Most of the times, the energy that we used are already transformed energy. Such as the light that we use in our rooms, the electricity that we use to power our plumbing system, and the fuel that were used in our vehicles. The electricity that is stored in our gadget’s battery. We might be already in a convenient condition for so long that we often take energy for granted.
Vaclav Smil wrote:
…generating electricity for mass-scale commercial use is a costly and complicated undertaking. Its distribution from where it is generated to the places and regions of its largest use is equally complicated: it requires transformers and extensive grids of high-voltage transmission lines, and after further transformation, distribution by low-voltage overhead or underground wires to billions of customers.
The explanation about energy is humbling me. I understand that I am still a small part in the complex energy value chain. The process behind our daily life is actually fascinating if we are willing to understand more.
Onto the next important thing…
Food
Yet another basic we often take for granted. In this era where a few clicks on the phone can get our food delivered in front of us, a little bit deeper understanding on the process of food production is important. With 8 billions people now living on Earth, how can we feed everyone? Human capacity to produce food is increasing, yet we still can see starvation here and there. But ironically, excessive food waste also found in many cities.
In the chapter about Food Production, Smil wrote about how in the past food production is labor extensive. The past was laborious, slow, and low-yielding farming. That was 1800s.
Things started to shift in 1900s since the invention of ammonia synthesis by Fritz Haber, which later improved by Bosch; and then the industry called it Haber-Bosch process. Smil continued in the book to break-down the energy costs of three important foodstuff that commonly accepted worldwide: bread, chicken, and tomatoes.
The real fossil energy cost is higher still, because only a small share of bread is now baked where it is bought. Even in France, neighborhood boulangeries have been disappearing and baguettes are distributed from large bakeries: energy savings from industrial scale efficiency are negated by increased transportation costs, and the total cost (from growing, milling grain, to baking in a large bakery and distributing bread to distant customers) may have an equivalent energy consumption as high as 600 mL diesel per 1 kilogram of bread.
The intricacies for chicken and tomatoes are mind-blowing for me. In this globalized world, I am not sure how many of us truly eat locally from their nearest farm. So it’s more challenging to quantify the energy cost of the food on our table.
Smil put an example:
This means that when bought in a Scandinavian supermarket, tomatoes from Almeria’s heated plastic greenhouses have stunningly high embedded production and transportation energy cost. Its total is equivalent to about 650 mL/kg.
And then he adds a witty question:
How many vegans enjoying their salads aware of its substantial fossil fuel pedigree?
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Living In The Material World
This is arguably the most important chapter on the book. Which should invite the reader to reflect on the past, the present, and to ponder about the future. There are four pillars of modern civilization. Those are ammonia, plastic, steel, and cement.
In the book, Smil wrote first about ammonia. Especially, as we discussed before, it’s the most important ingredient to fertilize our crops to feed the world. We are lucky that he shared an article recently for TIME to dicsuss the four pillars. The article can be accessed here and I would highlight the interesting points.
The world now produces annually about 4.5 billion tons of cement, 1.8 billion tons of steel, nearly 400 million tons of plastics, and 180 million tons of ammonia.
The dependence is even higher in the world’s most populous country: feeding three out of five Chinese depends on the synthesis of this compound. This dependence easily justifies calling ammonia synthesis the most momentous technical advance in history: other inventions provide our comforts, convenience or wealth or prolong our lives — but without the synthesis of ammonia, we could not ensure the very survival of billions of people alive today and yet to be born.
The next one is plastic. In the book, Smil put a label: Plastics: diverse, useful, troublesome. Not to forget, plastics have found their most indispensable roles in healthcare. Modern life now begins in maternity wards and ends in ICU surrounded by plastic items. And there is and important reminder from the pandemic.
The pandemic has taught us this in often drastic ways, as doctors and nurses in North America and Europe ran out of personal protective equipment (PPE) — disposable gloves, masks, shields, hats, gowns, and booties — and as governments outbid each other in order to airlift limited and highly overpriced supplies from China, to which the Western producres of PPE, obsessed with cutting costs, had relocated most of their production lines, creating dangerous yet entirely avoidable supply shortages.
And then there are steels. Take a look at our phones, laptop, TVs, and our vehicles. Steels dominate the materials that build up our tools to live and to work. While I wrote this review, I have my sturdy stainless steel tumbler beside me. This part from the book rings true:
Steel determines the look of modern civilization and enables its most fundamental functions. This is the most widely used metal and it forms countless visible and invisible critical components of today’s world. Moreover, nearly all other metallic and non-metallic products we use have been extracted, processed, shaped, finished, and distributed with tools and machine made of steel, and no mode of today’s mass transportation could function without steel.
Let that sink in for awhile.
And then we can take a look at this video by DW about our dependency on steel.
The process of making steel, is quite complex. And so far most of it relies on coal or natural gas to power the steel production.
And we continue to the next material, concrete.
This is also a reflective part. In what kind of building are you reading this now? I wrote it in a house based on concrete. Smil wrote that since 2007, most of humanity has lived in cities made possible by concrete. He went back to the past to explain us the history of cement as an indispensable component of concrete.
Some interesting numbers on concrete.
Perhaps the most stunning outcome of this rise is that in just two years — 2018 and 2019 — China produced nearly as much cement (about 4.4 billion tons) as did the United States during the entire 20th century (4.56 billion tons). Not surprisingly, the country now has the world’s most extensive systems of freeways, rapid trains, and airports, as well as the largest number of giant hydro stations and new multimillion-population cities. Yet another astounding statistic is that the world now consumes in one year more cement than it did during the entire first half of the century. And (both fortunately and unfortunately) these enormous masses of modern concrete will not as long as the Pantheon’s coffered dome.
It seems the quality of concrete will not match Pantheon’s era anymore. Due to increasing demands that need to be met quickly. Which Smil thinks this will be unprecedented burdens of concrete deterioration, renewal and and removal, as structures will have to be torn down — on order to be replaced or destroyed — or abandoned.
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Transition
And of course, the next hot topic is about energy transition. Many will think that Smil is too pessimistic about the future. However, the numbers and the facts that he present is truly important to think about.
It’s hard for me to find another example other than Europe at the moment. Which probably I have shared repeatedly.
With his books, I think as a reader we can try to connect the dots. To start to understand about energy density and to acknowledge our current dependence on what the media called “dirty” energy.
With more and more people live and need to be fed in the world, we need to be more cautious on driving the transition moving forward. On the graph above is only one of multi-faceted points to talk about energy transition. We need to acknowledge the physics that at the moment, even though a lot of voices saying that building renewables are cheaper than ever, renewables only is far from enough.
The decade transition by Germany should be a prime example. It might be an oversimplification, but Germany, Sweden, and France are the countries that we should learn more about energy transition.
What are the risk on heavily invested on wind and solar but in truth relying on imported gas as the main source of energy?
What are the impacts of safely utilize nuclear power?
How can we leverage hydropower to be the main source of energy?
I think those are important questions. Yes, solar and wind are not bad. But, don’t forget the metals we need to mine to provide an adequate battery storage.
In his another short commentary, Smil also provide some numbers related to wind turbine related with the fundamental materials of our civilization.
For a 5-megawatt turbine, the steel alone averages 150 metric tons for the reinforced concrete foundations, 250 metric tons for the rotor hubs and nacelles (which house the gearbox and generator), and 500 metric tons for the towers.
If wind-generated electricity were to supply 25 percent of global demand by 2030 (forecast to reach about 30 petawatt-hours), then even with a high average capacity factor of 35 percent, the aggregate installed wind power of about 2.5 terawatts would require roughly 450 million metric tons of steel.
And that’s without counting the metal for towers, wires, and transformers for the new high-voltage transmission links that would be needed to connect it all to the grid.A lot of energy goes into making steel. Sintered or pelletized iron ore is smelted in blast furnaces, charged with coke made from coal, and receives infusions of powdered coal and natural gas. Pig iron is decarbonized in basic oxygen furnaces. Then steel goes through continuous casting processes (which turn molten steel directly into the rough shape of the final product). Steel used in turbine construction embodies typically about 35 gigajoules per metric ton.
Are we going to utilize our limited resources just for “green” and “sustainable” labels or for the things that proven more impactful?
In the past few months we can also learned that most biomass in UK are from forests in another countries. Quoted from resources.co:
Drax states that it is due to the renewable nature of wood that the carbon emitted by the incinerators doesn’t go towards national carbon emissions totals — the company plants new trees alongside the wood it is collecting for pellets to capture its carbon production. However, new trees take decades to grow and capture carbon, while Drax is generating carbon now.
Indeed, the plant has received significant criticism from climate groups for its labelling of its energy production as ‘green’, and its inclusion in the UK’s progression towards net-zero. This is worsened by investigations into Drax’s sourcing, and its exploitation of primary forest environments and wood otherwise usable in more sustainable practices, like the production of wood products.
There are also some part in the books that should intrigue us to question more about the electrification of many things, especially vehicle.
I understand that we need to start somewhere, but it still get me curious who benefits most with the rise of EV?
The more I think about, the more I believe on this tweet by an urban planner:
The electric car is here to save the car industry, not the planet.
It’s kind of sad. The bigger problem is public transportation. And I am one of the privileged ones to be able to choose my own transportation.
But, maybe it’s human tendency to solve the easier problem?
How About The Future?
By now, I think we should have better understanding on our current realities. I know there are some opinions here and there in this article, but all are based on curiosities to understand the truth.
There is one important paragraph in the last chapter of the book:
Most of the electricity that energizes all electronic gadgets is generated by steam turbines, machines invented by Charles A. Parsons in 1884, or by gas turbines, with the first ones commercially deployed in 1938. While it has been possible to replace a billion landlines by mobile phones within a generation, it will not possible to replace terrawatts of power installed in steam and gas turbines by photovoltaic cells or wind turbines within a similar time span. Mobiles, as complex as they are, are just small devices at the apex of an enormous pyramid of an industry that generates, transforms, and transmits electricity, and that requires mass-scale infrastructure to build, rebuild, and maintain.
Smil thinks that the fundamentals of our lives will not change drastically in the coming 20–30 years, despite the near-constant flood of claims about superior innovations. Steel, cement, ammonia, and plastics will endure as the four pillars of civilization.
Smil adds:
Being agnostic about the distant future means being honest: we have to admit the limits of our understanding, approach all planetary challenges with humility, and recognize that advances, setbacks and failures will all continue to be a part of our evolution and that there can be no assurance of (however defined) ultimate success, no arrival at any singularity — but, as long as we use our accumulated understanding with determination and perseverance, there will also not be an early end of days.
By the end of the book, he wrote:
… I am not a pessimist or an optimist, I am a scientist. There is no agenda in understanding how the world really works.
A realistic grasp of our past, present, and uncertain future is the best foundation for approaching the unknowable expanse of time before us. While we cannot be specific, we know that the most likely prospect is a mixture of progress and setbcks, of seemingly insurmountable difficulties and near-miraculous advances. The future, as ever, is not predetermined. Its outcome depends on our actions.
Some people might argue that Smil didn’t really put some positive doable actions for everyday people. But I think we can try to do our parts.
Personally, I try to have better understanding of our past and our present. Of course, it’s great if we can be involved to work on things that truly matters for our future.
But in the meantime, let the bite of reality be our teacher to have a healthier discussion to build the future.
